What is sample size?

Definition

Sample size counts the observations available for estimating performance or testing a claim. More independent observations usually reduce uncertainty, although data quality and representativeness remain as important as the raw count.

A very small sample can produce an impressive result through luck. This is especially important when outcomes vary widely or when several observations are connected to the same market conditions.

A credible evaluation reports the sample definition, time period, missing data and uncertainty. It should not treat a few favorable days as proof that a model or strategy will keep working.

ELI5

Sample size is how many separate examples or results you have looked at. A tiny sample can give a misleading picture because chance has a large influence.

For example, five good or mixed trading days cannot show how a strategy behaves across many kinds of market conditions. More independent results give a stronger basis for judgment.

Frequently asked questions

Is a larger sample always better?

A larger representative sample usually improves precision, but biased, duplicated or poor-quality observations can still lead to a wrong conclusion.

Why is a small sample risky?

Random luck or one unusual period can dominate the result and make an unstable pattern look durable.

Videos explaining sample size

  1. Kristian Fagerlie reviewing a GPT-6 weather trading dashboard on a black background with a tentative performance chart and a no-trade signal.