Kristian Fagerlie compares his model’s election forecastsProbabilistic forecasting describes possible future outcomes using probabilities or a probability distribution. It expresses uncertainty rather than giving only one predicted outcome. with prediction-market pricesA prediction market lets participants trade contracts whose value depends on the outcome of a future event. and reported results, highlighting both predictions he considers successful and examples where its estimates were too conservative.
Kristian Fagerlie discusses outcome marginsAn AI evaluation metric is a defined measurement used to quantify a particular aspect of an AI system's performance., market positions and plans to refine the model. His results are an informal assessment made while some election outcomes remained unconfirmed.
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