An exponential trend can initially look modest and then rise rapidly because each increase builds on a larger base. Technology forecasts sometimes apply this pattern to computation, model scale, investment or measured capability.
Real systems rarely continue one exponential path indefinitely. Resource limits, changing measurement, market saturation and transitions between technologies can slow, interrupt or replace the observed trend.
ELI5
Exponential growth means something increases by the same percentage again and again, so each step adds more than the step before. Doubling from one to two, then four, eight and sixteen is a simple example.
For example, available computing might double repeatedly for several years and make AI training grow quickly. The pattern can still end when cost, energy, hardware or another physical limit becomes important.
