A forecast claim tracker decomposes a broad scenario into testable statements about events, quantities, dates, capabilities, or economic conditions. Each claim retains its original text, interpretation, evidence, status, uncertainty, and update history.
Good tracking distinguishes confirmed, partly supported, unresolved, contradicted, and not-yet-due claims. It also prevents hindsight bias by preserving the initial forecast and documenting judgment calls instead of quietly adjusting milestones to fit later reality.
Why track individual claims instead of grading an entire scenario?
Different milestones can move at different speeds, so claim-level evidence reveals which parts were accurate, early, late, vague, or unresolved.
What evidence belongs in a forecast claim tracker?
Use dated primary or credible sources, explicit interpretation rules, uncertainty, status history, and links between each claim and supporting evidence.
